A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON PAKISTANI SOCIETY

Abstract

The objective of the study is to assess the past climate changes and compute the projected changes in different Agro-climatic regions of country for next half century using Regional and Global Climate models. In view of these changes, vulnerabilities of different regions may be accessed and suitable coping mechanisms/ adaptation strategies be proposed.

Analysis of past depicts that our climate is changing. The rate of change and the nature of the resulting impacts will vary over time and across the country, affecting all aspects of our life. In conjunction with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it will also be necessary to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. Understanding what climate change will mean for Pakistan is only one step in that process.

Future changes in climate of the magnitude projected by most global climate models would cause a major impact on our water resources, and subsequently affect food supply, health, industry, transportation and ecosystem sustainability. Problems are most likely to arise to southern parts of country where the resource is already under stress, because that stress would be exacerbated by changes in supply or demand associated with climate change.

Previous record and projections by GCMs and RCMs depicts that extreme events (drought and flooding) would become more frequent and of greater magnitude in different parts of the country. These extreme events would place stress on existing infrastructure and institutions, with potentially major economic, social and environmental consequences. Therefore, particular emphasis needs to be placed on the impacts/mitigation of such extremes.