MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF FERTILITY IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study aims to investigate some socio-economic and demographic determinants of fertility in Pakistan. For this purpose, thirty annual observations were included in the dataset. This annual data was collected from World Development Indicators by World Bank. The study used Ng-Perren unit root test was used to check the stationarity of the time series data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to check the cointegration. The estimates for Pakistan indicated that income per capita, population density, and female labour force participation rate had negative association with total fertility rate. These estimates were statistically significant at five percent level of significance. The coefficient of child mortality rate indicated that child mortality was statistically insignificant factor in explaining variation in total fertility rate in Pakistan at five percent level of significance. The coefficient of interest rate in the regression of total fertility also lacked statistical significance at five percent significance level. The results of ARDL test of cointegration indicated that all the variables considered in the regression model had long run equilibrium relationship.